Forrester's 2025 predictions reveal mixed trends in AI & tech

Forrester has released its 2025 Predictions reports for Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Technology Leadership, presenting insights into the development and anticipated trends in these sectors.

These reports were part of new research unveiled ahead of its Technology & Innovation Summit North America.

In the realm of AI, the reports highlight several key forecasts. While AI has rapidly spread across enterprises this year, exceeding the earlier prediction that 60% of workers will bring their own AI (BYOAI) by 2024, Forrester suggests that a simple BYOAI approach is insufficient. The researchers noted, "For longer-term AI success, an effective strategy combining data and AI is essential."

Forrester predicts that by 2025, enterprises that are overly focused on immediate returns on investment (ROI) from AI will begin to scale back their initiatives prematurely. This retraction is attributed to a realisation among leaders that achieving ROI from AI investments will take longer than anticipated. The report states, "Impatience with AI ROI could prompt enterprises to prematurely scale back investments, leading to long-term disadvantages."

Another significant prediction is that 30% of Chief Information Officers (CIOs) of large firms will integrate Chief Data Officers (CDOs) into their IT teams. According to Forrester, "AI projects often face challenges due to issues with data foundations and lack of stakeholder collaboration. Bridging the gap between technical and business expertise is crucial for AI success."

Forrester also forecasts that 75% of firms attempting to create their own advanced AI agentic architectures will fail. These complex systems require multiple models, sophisticated data architectures, and specialised expertise. Consequently, a majority of these companies will resort to consulting firms for customised AI solutions or depend on AI capabilities embedded in existing vendor software ecosystems.

On the subject of technology leadership, the prediction report paints a mixed picture. Despite various economic, technological, and geopolitical challenges, there is a notable sense of optimism; 91% of technology decision-makers expect an increase in IT budgets in the coming year. Additionally, the digital economy is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% from 2023 to 2028.

However, Forrester anticipates that only 20% of tech executives tasked with leading digital transformations will succeed. The report explains, "Although many digital transformations are technologically enabled, the complexity and need for extensive coordination with business operations, HR, and other IT leaders make these initiatives difficult to execute, often leading to stalled projects and leadership turnover."

With the increasing complexity of IT landscapes, Forrester predicts that the adoption of AIOps (Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations) will triple among tech executives seeking to reduce technological debt. By 2025, over 50% of technology decision-makers will face moderate to high levels of tech debt severity, a figure expected to rise to 75% by 2026. To manage this growing debt, tech leaders are anticipated to turn to AIOps platforms that provide contextually aware data, automate incident remediation, and enhance business outcomes.

The report also highlights that 60% of organisations will cite technology risk as their primary strategic enterprise risk by 2025. The scope of these risks has evolved substantially over the past few years, reflecting a 20% increase in critical disclosures related to the integral role of technology in market value creation. As regulatory requirements and stakeholder expectations continue to shift, firms are expected to mature their technology risk strategies accordingly.