2026 holiday predictions: The evolving customer journey

The 2026 holiday season is expected to be one of the most challenging trading periods in recent years for retailers across Australia and New Zealand. While consumer spending remains resilient, the way customers discover, evaluate and purchase products continues to evolve. AI-powered shopping, omnichannel experiences, rising fraud risks and increasing fulfilment costs are reshaping the customer journey and creating new financial pressures for retailers.

For CFOs and finance leaders, these shifts extend far beyond marketing. Every stage of the customer journey has a direct impact on profitability, from customer acquisition and fraud prevention to shipping costs and operational efficiency. Underpinning each of these areas is one critical asset: trusted customer data.

Here are five predictions finance leaders across Australia and New Zealand should be preparing for before the holiday rush begins.

1. AI Will Play a Bigger Role in the Holiday Customer Journey

Consumers are increasingly using AI assistants to research products, compare prices and receive personalised recommendations before making a purchase. Rather than replacing traditional eCommerce channels, AI is becoming another touchpoint in the buying journey.

For finance leaders, this means customer and product data must be accurate, consistent and well-structured. AI systems rely on trusted data to deliver relevant recommendations and accurate information. Poor-quality product records, duplicate customer profiles or outdated information can reduce conversion rates and create operational inefficiencies that ultimately affect revenue and customer satisfaction.

2. Retailer-Owned AI Assistants Will Raise Expectations for Data Accuracy

Many retailers are introducing their own AI-powered shopping assistants to answer questions, recommend products and support customers throughout the buying process.

However, these assistants are only as effective as the information behind them. If customer records are duplicated, addresses are incomplete or order histories are fragmented across systems, AI assistants may provide inaccurate responses or escalate enquiries to customer service, increasing operational costs.

Before investing heavily in AI-powered customer experiences, finance leaders should ensure the underlying customer data has been verified, standardised and deduplicated.

3. More Shopping Channels Will Mean Greater Fraud Risk

Holiday shopping is no longer confined to eCommerce websites. Customers now move seamlessly between social commerce, mobile apps, online marketplaces and physical stores before completing a purchase.

While this creates new revenue opportunities, it also increases fraud exposure. As transactions occur across more digital touchpoints, identity fraud, account takeover and payment fraud become increasingly difficult to detect.

For Australian retailers, the Scams Prevention Framework Act 2025 reinforces the importance of stronger identity verification and fraud prevention practices. Finance leaders should expect identity verification to become an increasingly important investment for protecting revenue and reducing fraud losses during peak trading periods.

4. Omnichannel Retail Will Make Fulfilment More Expensive

Customers increasingly expect a seamless experience whether they shop online, visit a physical store or choose Buy Online, Pick Up In Store (BOPIS).

Delivering that experience depends on consistent customer and address data across every channel. Inaccurate addresses, duplicate customer records or disconnected systems can result in failed deliveries, delayed fulfilment, duplicate loyalty accounts and unnecessary customer service costs.

For CFOs, improving data quality is no longer just an IT initiative. It is a practical way to reduce fulfilment costs, improve operational efficiency and protect profit margins during the busiest shopping season of the year.

5. Every Failed Delivery Will Have a Bigger Impact on Profitability

Consumers continue to expect fast and free delivery regardless of economic conditions. At the same time, retailers face increasing pressure from rising shipping costs, labour shortages and tighter operating margins.

Every failed delivery, returned parcel or incorrect address adds avoidable costs through redelivery, customer support and reverse logistics.

Address verification at the point of checkout remains one of the simplest and most effective ways to reduce these costs. By validating addresses before orders are processed, retailers can improve first-time delivery success, minimise returns and enhance the overall customer experience while protecting profitability.

Trusted Data Will Shape the Holiday Customer Journey

Although these predictions cover AI, fraud prevention, omnichannel retail and fulfilment, they all point to the same conclusion: the customer journey is only as strong as the data supporting it.

As retailers prepare for the 2026 holiday season, finance leaders have an opportunity to strengthen profitability by improving the quality of the customer data flowing through every transaction. Accurate addresses, verified identities and clean customer records help reduce fraud, lower operational costs, improve delivery performance and create better customer experiences across every channel.

The retailers that succeed this holiday season won't simply be those that attract more shoppers. They will be the ones with the trusted data needed to support every stage of the evolving customer journey.

Learn how Melissa's Address Verification and Identity Verification solutions help retailers across Australia and New Zealand improve data quality, reduce fraud and deliver better customer experiences throughout the holiday season.