Forrester has published research warning that generative artificial intelligence is increasing pressure on energy and water resources, even as it offers gains for sustainability work.
The report describes a sustainability paradox: GenAI is driving heavier data-centre resource use while also helping companies improve carbon accounting, sustainability reporting, climate-risk modelling and operational efficiency.
Global data-centre capacity is expected to double between 2025 and 2030 as demand from hyperscale cloud services and AI systems grows, according to the report. That expansion is likely to intensify scrutiny of whether AI spending supports environmental goals or adds to climate and resource strains.
Large data centres already use hundreds of thousands to millions of gallons of water each day for cooling. Rapid AI adoption could add between 4.2 billion and 6.6 billion cubic metres of water usage by 2027.
Resource strain
Forrester argues that sustainability and risk leaders will need to weigh the environmental cost of GenAI against its practical uses. It highlights a growing challenge for companies deploying AI tools to improve decision-making while facing pressure to measure the broader effects of those same systems.
One example is circular-economy work, where GenAI can help organisations manage the lifecycle of equipment and materials more effectively. By analysing telemetry data from servers, laptops and internet-connected devices, AI systems can help predict component failures, support refurbishment decisions and reduce electronic waste.
The study also identifies climate-risk analysis as a key use case. When combined with real-time observational data, GenAI can improve the spatial detail, speed and financial relevance of climate-risk analytics.
That approach can support earlier warnings for extreme weather events, help estimate potential loss reductions and allow organisations to assess the financial effect of adaptation measures. Forrester presents these applications as examples of how AI may contribute to more actionable sustainability planning.
Governance focus
Forrester says the environmental benefits of GenAI will depend on how organisations govern its use and assess supplier claims. The research warns against treating AI as an opaque system and urges companies to demand transparency and auditability from vendors.
Abhijit Sunil, Senior Analyst at Forrester, outlined the trade-off described in the findings.
"Generative AI can dramatically accelerate sustainability, but only if leaders confront its growing energy, water and other data-center community impacts head‐on," Sunil said.
He cautioned against relying on AI to solve problems without considering the effects created by the technology itself.
"AI is becoming the default tool we turn to solve all problems, including ones that AI itself creates. Our research shows that genAI has rapidly maturing use cases in carbon accounting, climate‐risk analytics, and sustainability strategy. However, organizations must avoid AI black boxes, demand transparency and auditability, and assess whether vendors' sustainability claims outweigh their resource costs. Those that do will turn genAI's sustainability impact into a competitive advantage rather than a reputational risk," he said.